[poochee]

Released: January 15, 2007
Zogby Poll: Nation Now Needs a New Reagan or FDR

U.S. in national crisis, majority tell Pollster Zogby


Americans long for the leadership qualities of the most popular Democratic and Republican presidents of the modern era to solve what a wide majority considers a national crisis, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.


The survey of 843 likely voters nationwide was conducted Jan. 5-9, 2007, and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.


Offered thumbnail descriptions of the presidential qualities, including the names of five of the greatest American Presidents – George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan – respondents nationwide said Reagan’s qualities are most sought after, with FDR a very close second. Twenty–eight percent said they would prefer someone like Reagan, whose “far-sighted vision” and who “persevered despite harsh criticism from enemies and was firm in pursuing his agenda.” Nearly as many (26%) said they preferred the “pragmatism and hopefulness of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who inspired a nation in trouble and championed the needs of the downtrodden.”


Another 21% said they think this is a time for Democrat John F. Kennedy, while 16% reached back to Abraham Lincoln in search of a leader to solve today’s modern problems. Just 6% said they think the nation – now at war around the world for five years – would be best served by George Washington, the man who led the war for independence.


It comes as no surprise Republican respondents overwhelmingly believe America is most in need of the guidance Reagan would provide – 57% of Republicans say the nation needs a president like Reagan, while 18% said it is time for a president with Lincoln’s attributes. But only 9% of Democrats believe the nation is in need of a president like Reagan. They would instead turn to Democratic presidents of the past to help solve the nation’s problems – 35% want to have a president like FDR, while 32% believe a president like Kennedy would be best able to lead America today.


Both women and men most favor a president like Reagan to deal with today’s issues – men somewhat more (32%) compared to 25% of women. FDR comes in as the second choice for men (28%) while 19% would turn to a president with JFK’s qualities. Women gave equal support (23%) to Roosevelt and Kennedy as their second choice for a president with the qualities the nation most needs now.


Our nation’s first president ranked far behind others -- only 6% who said America needs a president who possesses “the firm resolve yet humble spirit” of George Washington. Libertarians were twice as likely to believe there is a need for a person in the White House like Washington – 12% said they feel this way as well as 11% of those who identify themselves as very conservative.


There is widespread agreement among Americans surveyed that the nation is in a state of crisis. Democrats were much more likely than Republicans to say the nation is currently facing a crisis – 86% of Democrats feel this way, and though less so, a majority of Republicans (56%) agreed. While 82% of progressives and 80% of moderates said a crisis now looms in America, 57% of conservatives said the nation faces a crisis.


More than half (59%) of respondents said they believe the nation is off on the wrong track – that figure jumps to 83% for liberal respondents. Conservatives were more likely to say the nation is headed in the right direction – 44% have a positive view of where the nation is headed, compared to just 30% of overall respondents.

War was Americans’ top issue heading into the 2008 presidential election for 37% of respondents – widely beating out other concerns such as the economy, healthcare, immigration issues and taxes. Asked what issue will be most important to the nation in the next presidential election, half (50%) cited war-related issues in Iraq, Afghanistan and with the troops – again trumping any other issue by a significant margin.

(1/15/2007)

 

[poochee]

Zogby Poll: Partisanship Out, Competence In For Next President
Americans now value leadership and unity more than ideology; Poll shows rebirth of the “political center”

After nearly a decade of stormy political seas, U.S. voters are now hungry for a strong managerial hand to stabilize the ship of state and steer it toward calm waters – away from partisanship and toward national unity, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.

Trait in a President
Percent rating it “very important”

Is a competent manager
82%

Can bring the American people together
80%

Can command the military
76%

Has personal morality
76%

Can promote the image of the U.S. abroad
73%

Can cross the aisle to in support from the opposition
58%

Has Christian values in his or her personal life
46%

Has diplomatic experience
46%

Stands strongly with his or her party
42%

Has successful business experience
36%

Has state experience
35%

Is a charismatic speaker
32%

Has been a legislator
21%

The poll of 993 likely voters nationwide finds the two most highly-prized attributes in the next chief executive are being a competent manager and bringing the American people together. The former was called “very important” by 82%, while the latter was considered very important by 80%. Being able to command the military was rated lower than these characteristics, with 76% saying it was very important.

These virtues were followed by the personal morality of the president, which 76% rated very important, and the ability to promote the image of the U.S. abroad, called very important by 73%.

The telephone survey, conducted May 17–20, 2007, included 993 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/– 3.2 percentage points.

By contrast, American voters seem ready to reject partisanship, at least in its more strident forms. Just 42% of likely voters in the poll considered it very important that the next president stand strongly with his or her party—with Democrats slightly more likely than Republicans, by 50% to 46%, to hold this viewpoint. Similarly, 58% of likely voters said it was very important that the next president proves agile enough to cross the aisle and win support from the opposite party’s members in Congress.

On the top-rated issues, Republican Rudy Giuliani stakes out strong territory, rated the candidate most seen as a strong manager by likely voters. Here, 25% rate him the candidate who most conjures that phrase, while 23% choose Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton. No other candidate even breaks into double digits on this question.

Likewise, on the issue of bringing the American people together, Giuliani, at 22%, is the top-rated Republican. But on the Democratic side, it is Barack Obama, the freshman Illinois senator, who places first, also at 22%. Significantly, Obama’s first-place finish is driven not just by support from Democrats, among whom he is tied with the former first lady, but from Republicans—of whom 9%, or one in eleven, call him the candidate best positioned to bring the American people together. Similarly, 8% of Democrats say the same about the former New York mayor.

Of significant note, though, is how well Obama does with a constituency viewed by many as key to the 2008 elections: moderates and independents. Among those who call themselves independents, the Illinois Democrat is named by 28%, propelling him well past Giuliani’s 19%. Among those describing their views as moderate, meanwhile, he captures 26% support on this issue, while Giuliani is at 21%.

The former first lady, who has spent most of the past six years positioning herself as a political centrist, wins on the question of being the candidate seen as most able to cross the aisle and work with the opposition in Congress. One in five likely Americans voters ascribe that trait to her (19%) while 16% select Giuliani, 15% select Obama, and 12% name McCain.

On other issues, though, a different picture emerges.

When it comes to leading the military, however, Arizona Sen. John McCain is in a class by himself in the eyes of likely American voters. One in three—33%—call him the candidate who comes to mind for the phrase “can command the military”—putting him far ahead of the 14% who name Clinton and the 12% who select Giuliani. Intriguingly, McCain’s lead becomes a massive blowout among moderates, where 46% rate him the top candidate for this attribute.

The survey also offers evidence that at least one frontrunner’s camp is failing to get out a key component of its message. When asked to name the candidate who best personified “has successful business experience,” Hillary Clinton came in first, at 19%. Meanwhile, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who has made his business and managerial acumen a key component in his campaign, ran neck-and-neck with Giuliani on the question, garnering 15% to Giuliani’s 14%. Romney, in addition to four years in Boston’s governor’s mansion, also was the CEO of the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics.

 

[poochee]

Zogby Poll: Majority Call Fighting Poverty a "Top Priority":up:

58% of voters more likely to vote for '08 candidate who sets goal of halving poverty within a decade
Poverty is on the minds of a majority of Americans as the 2008 presidential contest moves headlong toward a compressed primary calendar, new polling conducted by Zogby International ahead of a Democratic candidate forum shows.

The poll of 933 likely voters nationwide is being released in conjunction with a Monday forum on poverty at George Washington University, featuring expected appearances by top-tier Democratic candidates Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards.

The poll, conducted in conjunction with the Life Cycle Institute at the Catholic University of America and the Center for American Progress, found half of likely voters (58%) calling poverty either the single most important priority facing the nation’s leaders or a top priority for Congress and the President.

Poverty appears poised to be a major issue heading into the 2008 elections, with 55% saying they are very concerned about it, and 58% of likely voters saying they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who set a national goal of cutting poverty in half within a decade. Just 8% said they would be less likely to vote for such a candidate. This issue had particular resonance with Democratic Party voters, where 40% of likely voters said they would be “much more likely” to vote for such a candidate.

Among those who said they would be more likely to vote for a such a candidate, nearly seven in 10 (69%) said they would still be more likely to back such a candidate even if achieving the goal of halving poverty would require significantly higher federal spending.

The telephone survey, conducted May 17 through 20, 2007, carries a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Agree
Disagree

Most people are poor because their jobs don’t pay enough, they lack good health care and education, and things cost too much for them to save and move ahead
80%
19%
Most people are poor because they make bad decisions in life
44%
55%

Voters also dismissed the notion that poverty is the fault of the impoverished, with eight in 10 respondents blaming poor-paying jobs and the high cost of education and healthcare for poverty.

Voters See Key to Reducing Poverty in Education

Voters showed a strong belief that universal education was critical to combating poverty, with 96% favoring making sure every child attended a school with good teachers and a safe learning environment that would prepare them for college and 90% ensuring that every child aged 4 or 5 has the opportunity to attend kindergarten.

Support
Oppose
Not sure

Make sure every child attends a school with good teachers, a safe learning environment, and adequate resources to prepare them for college or a career
96%
3%
1%
Ensure that every 4 or 5 year old in America gets to go to kindergarten
90%
8%
2%
Provide better financial education so that families can better manage their finances and save
89%
10%
1%
Stop predatory lending and other financial practices that target low-income families
87%
9%
4%
Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit – a tax credit that helps support families with jobs that don’t pay enough to stay out of poverty
84%
13%
3%
Expand Pell Grants so that every child who wants to attend college has the money to do so
82%
17%
2%
Provide guaranteed health care coverage for every American
76%
23%
1%
Increase the minimum wage to $7.25 per hour
76%
23%
1%
Increase the minimum wage and ensure that it equals at least half of the average hourly wage in America each year – about $8.55 in today's terms
75%
24%
1%
Make it easier for workers who want to join a union to be able to do so without intimidation from management
72%
24%
4%
Expand the food stamps program so that low-income families are guaranteed good nutrition and enough to eat
72%
27%
2%
Provide guaranteed childcare
71%
27%
2%

More than four in five voters also showed a willingness to embrace solutions oriented at combating problems experienced by many impoverished families, including a lack of financial knowledge and the predatory lending institutions that frequently target low-income families. Three-quarters of voters, meanwhile, backed guaranteed health care coverage for Americans and increasing the minimum wage to $7.25 an hour. Notably, three in four American voters (76%) also believe that steps to help the poor could also be helpful for middle class families—with providing guaranteed health coverage for every American seen as the step most beneficial to the middle class.

The full survey results are set to be released Monday, June 4, at 7 p.m. at the presidential candidates forum on poverty at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.

 

[poochee]

Joint AAI/APN Poll: Jewish and Arab Americans United in Desire for Two-State Solution, U.S. Engagement; Bush Gets Low Marks

The Arab American Institute (AAI) and Americans for Peace Now (APN) today released the results of their joint survey of Arab Americans and Jewish Americans gauging support within both communities for Arab-Israeli peace. The results come on the cusp of the 40th anniversary of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and resulting occupation. Full results are available at www.aaiusa.org and www.peacenow.org.

The poll, conducted by Zogby International, revisits questions asked of both communities in a similar 2002 AAI/APN poll and a subsequent 2003 poll.

The new survey polled 501 Jewish Americans from May 22-23, 2007, and 501 Arab Americans from May 22-26, 2007. The margin of error for both samples is +/- 4.5%.

Results confirm that strong majorities in both the Jewish and Arab American communities remain committed to the right of both Israelis and Palestinians to live in secure and independent states (Table 1); support a negotiated settlement to final status issues, such as Jerusalem, refugees, and borders (Table 2); and consider a resolution to the conflict in the U.S. national interest (Table 3).

“This survey, yet again, reaffirms our assertion that most American Jews support a diplomatic approach to resolving conflicts in the Middle East – whether conflicts between Israel and its neighbors or the conflict between the U.S. and Iran” said Debra DeLee, President of Americans for Peace Now. “Not only do members of both communities support negotiated peace between Israel and its neighbors, they also want to see the Bush administration play a greater role to make it happen.”

“Despite heightened tensions and the devastation of continued conflicts in the region, solid majorities of Arab Americans and Jewish Americans are united in their desire an end to the occupation and settlements, and for peace through a two-state solution,” added James Zogby, President of the Arab American Institute. “Both communities believe that U.S. policies have been ineffective and are looking to the 2008 presidential candidates to make engagement in the Middle East a priority in their campaigns and in the White House.”

The poll reveals that Arab and Jewish Americans share not only a commitment to peace, but also a common vision of what constitutes positive U.S. engagement in the Middle East. The full results of the 2007 AAI/APN poll, which include questions on U.S. policy towards Iran, Israel-Syria negotiations, the Arab League Peace Initiative, and settlements, are available on www.aaiusa.org and www.peacenow.org.

Two-thirds of Jewish Americans (68%) and Arab Americans (64%) also indicated they would be more likely to support a presidential candidate who took an active role in the Israel-Palestinian peace process (Table 4).

Meanwhile, respondents largely rated President Bush’s handling of the Arab/Israeli conflict in the Middle East as ineffective: 80% of Jewish Americans, 77% of Arab Americans (Table 5).

Respondents also expressed strong support (73% of Jewish Americans and 79% of Arab Americans) for serious U.S. diplomatic engagement with Iran rather than preparing for military action (Table 6).

Zogby

 

[poochee]

NEWS ADVISORY - Pollster John Zogby Column: Hurricane Katrina Will Be As Much A Defining Moment As 9/11 Terrorist Attacks

In the June edition of Campaigns and Elections Magazine, Pollster John Zogby outlines the results of extensive polling that shows Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath may be more important to how Americans view their governments (federal, state, and local) and how they want them to perform in the future. It may also play a very important role in the 2008 race for U.S. President.

An excerpt from the John Zogby column:

Barely 30 percent think the nation is now headed in the right direction, and 73 percent say the U.S is in a serious crisis, according to our recent polling.

This suggests a need to redefine the very nature and structure of U.S. federalism. In our post-Katrina polling, we found a hunger nationwide for a new model for the federal government. In many ways, I believe Katrina, over the long haul, will prove to be more of a defining moment in American history than the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

I realize this may be a stunning statement and that I may be a little ahead of the polls on this, because a poll provides us with a snapshot in time. But there is a trend pointing to this conclusion. While sour memories of the post-Katrina failures have dimmed, the hunger for a better government model has not. The implications for the 2008 presidential election are fascinating.

 

[poochee]

Zogby/AAI Poll: Arab American Voters to Decide On 2008 Presidential Candidates by Stance on Iraq War
Poll Also Indicates Near Collapse of "Certain Republican" Voters

Dr. James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, today presented the first-in-a-series of surveys on Arab American political opinion leading up to the 2008 presidential election.

The nationwide AAI poll, conducted by Zogby International, randomly surveyed 501 Arab American registered voters by phone. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points, though the margin is higher within subgroups. The full poll report and tables is available on AAI's website at www.aaiusa.org.

"While Arab American voters trend very closely to other Americans on domestic issues such as the economy, health care and education, the community's personal connection to the Iraq war makes it the most important issue in determining their pick for president in 2008," said Zogby.

"When coupled with results that indicate nearly half of Arab American voters' decisions will depend upon the individual candidates rather than party, and with numbers that point to an erosion of 'certain Republicans,' it is clear that presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle must speak to issues and not party line in order to court Arab American voters," he said.

Arab Americans' Personal Connection to the Iraq War

When asked which three issues would be most important in determining their vote for president, the Iraq war registered as a top concern among 61% of Arab American voters. While no other issue registers a comparable level of concern, other issues that will determine the Arab American vote are: jobs and the economy (31%), immigration (13%), health care (13%), and education (8%).

The Iraq war uniquely impacts the Arab American community. Four in ten Arab Americans answered that they personally know someone from Iraq, 41% stating that they know an American service member, and 16% saying they know both an Iraqi and an American service member.

There is support for a phased withdrawal from Iraq from over half of Arab American voters (53%). This consensus is shared among all subgroups, including Republicans (47%). The position advocated by the president to remain in Iraq until victory is supported by less than one quarter (23%) of Arab American Republicans.

Near Collapse of the "Certain Republican" Arab American Voter

When asked if they are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, an independent candidate, or if it would depend on the candidate for president, almost half of Arab American voters said it would depend on the candidate (46%).

While 62% of Democrats said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, there is a near collapse of certain Republican voters. Over half of Republican respondents (53%) said that they would vote for the Democrat (11%) or that it would depend on the candidate (42%). There is even indecision among older and Catholic voters-two subgroups which have in recent years favored Republican presidential candidates.

For over ten years, the Democratic Party has retained a base of approximately four in ten Arab American voters. Currently a quarter of Arab Americans still consider themselves Republicans, AAI's polling indicates that support for the Republican Party has decreased by 10% over a ten-year period. After an increase in 2004 and 2006, Democrats settled back to 39%.

Almost eight in ten Arab Americans rate President George W. Bush's job performance negatively. The president polls best among Republican voters (41% positive), although even this group gives him a net negative rating.

Presidential Candidates on the Peace Process

Almost two-thirds of Arab American voters said they would be more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who promised to take an active role in the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. Support for this position exists across all demographic subgroups.

Over half of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who promised to support peace negotiations between Israel and Syria. Again, this support exists across all demographic groups.

Arab Americans' Presidential Picks

Of the Republicans polled, Arab Americans named Giuliani and McCain as their top choices for president. Obama and Clinton were at the top choices for Arab American Democrats.

 

[poochee]

Zogby:
Clinton Builds Sturdy Lead;
Thompson & Giuliani Battle for Top GOP Spot

Zogby International's nationwide telephone survey shows Clinton takes a chunk of Obama's liberal base; Thompson's strength in the Heartland gives a boost

The candidate who seems to have been running forever and the one who has yet to enter the race are leading their respective nomination contests in a national preference poll by Zogby International.

Democrats
July 14, 2007
May 20, 2007
Feb. 26, 2007

Clinton
37%
39%
33%

Obama
25%
24%
25%

Edwards
11%
11%
12%

Richardson
3%
2%
5%

Kucinich
2%
1%
Less than 1%

Biden
1%
2%
2%

Dodd
Less than 1%
Less than 1%
Less than 1%

Gravel
Less than 1%
Less than 1%
Less than 1%

Someone else
2%
3%
3%

Not sure
18%
17%
20%

The survey shows New York Sen. Hillary Clinton with a 37% to 25% lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is a distant third at 12%, while New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson leads the also-rans with 4%. Clinton's edge over Obama has shrunk slightly since late May - she has lost two points and Obama has gained 1% since that last Zogby poll of the race.

Eighteen percent of Democrats remain undecided, the same as in late May.

On the Republican side, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, as yet a non-candidate, has climbed to the top of the GOP leaderboard, winning 22% support, compared to 21% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains in third place with 11%. Arizona Sen. John McCain continues his dramatic slide, from second place in late May to fourth place now, supported by 9% of likely Republican voters nationwide.

One in four Republican voters are undecided, about the same as late May.

The latest Zogby International telephone survey was conducted July 12-14, 2007, and included 396 likely voting Democrats. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points. The Republican segment included 364 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points.

Hillary Wins Liberal Support

Republicans
July 14, 2007
May 20, 2007
Feb. 26, 2007

F. Thompson
22%
10%
7%

Giuliani
21%
26%
29%

Romney
11%
10%
9%

McCain
9%
13%
20%

Huckabee
5%
4%
7%

Brownback
2%
3%
4%

Hunter
1%
1%
1%

Tancredo
Less than 1%
1%
1%

T. Thompson
Less than 1%
1%
Less than 1%

Paul
1%
Less than 1%
Less than 1%

Gilmore
Less than 1%
Less than 1%
Less than 1%

Hagel
Less than 1%
Less than 1%
Less than 1%

Someone else
2%
4%
4%

Not sure
25%
26%
19%

The survey shows Clinton has picked up steam, especially among younger Democratic voters. She wins 59% support among those aged 18-29, up 10% since late May. Meanwhile, Edwards has lost significant ground in the same demographic. In fact, lower tier candidate Dennis Kucinich, at 6% among those under age 30, has more support than Edwards in that group.

Clinton has also maintained her base of support among moderates, while expanding her support among progressives to 36%, up from 31% two months ago. Her backing among progressives appears to come out of Obama's liberal base, as he has slipped from 35% to 27% in that group.

Thompson Winning Hearts in the Heartland

Republican Fred Thompson has built his tiny lead on strength of support in the South, from which he hails, and the Midwest. Rudy shines in the east, and Romney and Rudy are tied for tops in the West. McCain manages to eke out a third-place showing in the South, but is otherwise badly weakened following a bloody legislative loss over immigration reform and a spate of bad news about his campaign fund-raising woes and loss of staff. News reports have his campaign contracting to three key states - Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Thompson's strongest appeal comes from those who consider themselves to be "very conservative," as 35% in that group said they favored the former Tennessee Senator-turned-actor. Giuliani finished a distant third in that group, followed by Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. McCain finishes fifth among very conservative voters.

Among mainline conservatives - the largest subgroup of GOP voters - Giuliani wins 21%, compared to 20% for Thompson, 13% for Romney, and 12% for McCain.

However, those who support Giuliani and Thompson are also those Republicans who said they are most likely to change their minds before they vote in their state primary or caucus.

 

[bill.aam]

Voters unhappy with Bush; Congress: Reuters poll

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Most U.S. voters think the country is on the wrong track and remain deeply unhappy with President George W. Bush and Congress, but still feel good about their finances and optimistic about the future, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
ADVERTISEMENT

Eighteen months before Bush leaves the White House, nearly two-thirds of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction and give the president negative marks for his job performance.

An even bigger majority, 83 percent, say the Democratic-controlled Congress is doing only a fair or poor job -- the worst mark for Congress in a Zogby poll.

But on a personal level, Americans feel relatively secure and comfortable with their own finances and safety. Nearly 82 percent of Americans said they feel very or fairly safe from "threats from abroad," and nearly 70 percent feel very or fairly secure in their jobs.

While 14 percent rated their personal financial situation as excellent and 10 percent as poor, the vast majority found themselves in the middle. About 43 percent rated their finances as good, and 43 percent as fair.

Poll

 

[poochee]

ZOGBY:
Dems Hold General Election Edge as Clinton Makes Big Move; Obama Remains Strong Against GOPers:up:
Prospective match–ups show Clinton consolidating support among moderates & independents :up:

Democrat Hillary Clinton has taken a big leap forward in prospective general election presidential match-ups against Republicans Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, riding mainly on a powerful wave of support from women and political moderates, a new Zogby International poll shows.

The telephone survey of likely voters has the former First Lady and New York senator leading all of the top four GOP contenders in prospective races, a significant improvement for her over the last Zogby poll to test such contests in mid-May. Democrat Barack Obama continues to lead those same four contenders—Giuliani, McCain, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and candidate-in-waiting Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee—as he did in Zogby’s May survey.

v. McCain
v. Giuliani
v. Romney
v. Thompson

Clinton (7/14/2007)
Clinton 45%-43%
Clinton 46%-41%
Clinton 48%-38%
Clinton 47%-41%

Clinton (5/17/2007)
McCain 47%-43%
Giuliani 48%-43%
Clinton 48%-40%
Clinton 48%-41%

The poll, conducted July 12-14, 2007, included 1,012 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Clinton’s move over the past two months has been dramatic. Against Giuliani, Clinton has moved from a five-point deficit (Giuliani 48%-Clinton 43%) to a six-point lead, 47%-41%. Among moderates, Clinton expanded a six-point lead in May (48%-42%) to a massive 24-point edge, now leading Giuliani by a 55% to 31% edge. Against McCain, she went from a 49%-45% deficit among moderates to a strapping 52% to 35% lead—and this against the two moderate Republican leaders in the presidential race.

Her move to shore up female support is just as dramatic. For instance, in the contest against Giuliani in May, the two were tied among women at 45%. Now, Clinton leads, 54% to 35%. Against McCain, she expanded her lead from 7% to 10%, edging the Arizona senator, 51% to 41%.

Among independents, she moved from a 47%-39% deficit against McCain to a 46%-36% lead over him. Against Giuliani, Clinton moved from a one-point deficit among independents to a five-point lead.

v. McCain
v. Giuliani
v. Romney
v. Thompson

Obama (7/14/2007)
Obama 45%-42%
Obama 46%-42%
Obama 49%-35%
Obama 48%-40%

Obama (5/17/2007)
Obama 46%-43%
Obama 48%-42%
Obama 52%-35%
Obama 52%-35%

Obama’s edge over his prospective Republican rivals remained largely the same as in the May survey.

The survey shows, in fact, that McCain’s support among moderates and independents across the board has collapsed—this after his failure on the recent immigration reform bill and widespread reports of a campaign prone to mismanagement and fund-raising shortfalls. Not only does McCain now trail Obama and Clinton in the head-to-head match-ups, he has fallen into a 43%-43% tie with Democrat John Edwards, when two months ago he enjoyed a five-point lead against the former North Carolina senator.

v. McCain
v. Giuliani
v. Romney
v. Thompson

Edwards (7/14/2007)
Tied at 43%
Giuliani 46%-43%
Edwards 47%-38%
Edwards 46%-40%

Edwards (5/17/2007)
McCain 46%-41%
Giuliani 47%-43%
Edwards 50%-36%
Edwards 48%-40%

Edwards, like McCain, has fallen badly behind his competitors in national preference polling. But while Edwards still leads the Dem pack in Iowa, McCain has also faltered badly there, trailing by double-digits behind Romney, who also leads in New Hampshire polling.

Bloomberg Makes Small Impact

When New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has expressed interest in spending up to $1 billion of his own money on an independent bid for the White House next fall, is tossed into the presidential mix, he pulls slightly more support from Republicans than he does from Democrats in this early polling. The socially liberal, fiscally conservative mayor, who won two terms as a liberal Republican, has recently cast off the GOP moniker in favor of an independent label. Polling has shown he is not now a well-known political quantity across America, but an intense advertising campaign could change that quickly.

In the three-way contests, Bloomberg wins between 6% and 11% support, but the outcome of no race changes because of his presence in the contest.

 

[poochee]

Zogby Poll:

NBA Referee Gambling Scandal Badly Damages League Reputation

Two-thirds think discovery that a ref gambled on games just the tip of the iceberg; 72% believe referees are biggest culprits, but that NBA players are also involved

There is nothing but bad news for the National Basketball Association in a new national survey by Zogby Interactive that shows four out of five American adults have heard about the scandal of an NBA ref who bet on league games, and that most believe other referees are doing the same thing.

The online survey shows that, even just among NBA fans, 61% believe more refs are gambling on the games while controlling them with their whistles. Non-fans are even more cynical, the survey shows - 68% said they think there is more to the league's gambling scandal.

The interactive survey was conducted July 27-30, 2007, and included 7,362 respondents, including 4,806 who said they considered themselves fans of the NBA. The margin of error for the overall survey was +/- 1.2 percentage points, while the margin of error for that portion of the survey just including NBA fans is +/-1.4 percentage points.

Excerpt from: www.zogby.com

 

[poochee]

Zogby Poll: 82% concerned about buying goods from China
Survey finds that while 69% believe non-food products from China are safe, just 30% are as confident about food imported from China

The recent warnings and recalls about toxic toothpaste, tainted pet food, contaminated seafood and lead paint-laced toys from China haven't gone unnoticed by American consumers - the vast majority of Americans (82%) said they are concerned about purchasing goods from China in the wake of many media reports about faulty goods from that country, a new Zogby Interactive poll shows.

The survey was conducted before the announcement of a massive recall of Chinese-made toys by Fisher-Price, but after a significant recall of Chinese-made railroad toys sold under the Thomas & Friends Wooden Railway brand name. Both companies recalled the products because they contained excessive levels of lead on the toys and parts.

Despite media reports raising safety concerns about Chinese goods, 69% said they are confident the non-food products they purchase from China are safe - but 20% aren't so sure. Asked about their confidence in the safety of food products from China, 59% said they are not confident that foods from China are safe to eat. Just 30% said they are confident the food products they purchase from China are safe, while 12% said they were unsure, the online survey shows.

Nearly two-thirds (63%) said they would be likely to participate in a boycott of Chinese goods until the country implements stricter safety regulations.

61% said they would be more likely to purchase a product with a "China Free" label.

86% believe cost is the primary motivator for most American consumers.

Excerpt from: www.zogby.com

 

[poochee]

Zogby Poll: As Labor Day Nears, Workplace Bullying Institute Survey Finds Half of Working Americans Affected by Workplace Bullying

Half of working Americans (49%) have suffered or witnessed workplace bullying -- including verbal abuse, job sabotage, abuse of authority or destruction of workplace relationships, according to a new Workplace Bullying Institute/Zogby Interactive survey.

Prevalence. The WBI survey found that 37% of the U.S. workforce, an estimated 54 million employees, have been bullied now or sometime during their worklife. Despite this epidemic-level prevalence, 45% of respondents said they have never seen or experienced bullying at work.

"It's clearly a 'silent epidemic,'" claims Dr. Gary Namie, Director of the Workplace Bullying Institute in Bellingham, Washington. Stress from prolonged exposure to bullying (33% suffer for more than one year) adversely affects psychological or physical health of 45% of targets.

Gender. When bullies are women, they choose other women as their prey in 71% of cases. Bullying, or status-blind harassment, is four (4) times more prevalent than illegal, civil rights, status-based harassment. Same-gender harassment defines the two most frequent categories of bullying. Gary Namie said, "It was legal when we started the movement in '98 and it still is today."

Employer reactions. Because 40% of bullied respondents left their jobs, it is estimated that the skills of 21+ million workers are lost to employers due to bullying. However, when employers are notified, in the majority (62%) of cases, they do nothing or make matters worse. Employer indifference may be based on these findings -- most bullies are bosses (72%); bullies enjoy support from executive sponsors, peers and human resources; most targets are non-supervisory workers (55%); and in 80% of cases, it is legal.

Excerpt from: www.zogby.com

 

[poochee]

Pollster John Zogby handicaps Democratic presidential hopefuls
The following column by John Zogby as published in the Observer-Dispatch newspaper in Utica, NY.

This is my inaugural column for the Observer-Dispatch, and let me note from the beginning that what follows is for entertainment purposes only.

I would like to take a brief look at the major candidates for the presidential nominations in both parties, something I'll revisit a few times as we get closer to the actual primary season.

The Democrats

* Hillary Rodham Clinton - She is clearly the frontrunner and I have learned over the years to never bet against a Clinton. Based on solid historical data, I didn't think she could win in New York in 2000 and I have since learned that there are two political playbooks in the U.S. today: One marked "The Clintons" and the other, "We Mortals."

On the pro side, Clinton has experience, the flexibility to sense where the firestorm of criticism may be coming from and to adjust her message and demeanor, her husband as both the sharpest political mind in the nation today and as a personality to rally the Democratic base, and considerable charm that wears well with her obvious intelligence.

She has also neutralized to a great degree the doggedness and arrogance that led to the defeat of her health-care plan in 1994.

As for cons, she is the lightning rod and can energize the other side to come out to vote against her.

Questions abound among Democrats as to whether she can win. And perhaps most significantly, a 2008 voter will have to be at least 46 years of age to have cast a ballot in a presidential election where a Bush or a Clinton wasn't an option.

So a campaign that argues for a fresh face and a different kind of experience might hurt her. (Likely scenario: She runs and wins two terms as president, then serves one term as chairman of the Federal Reserve, then converts to Catholicism and rides out her final years as Pope).

* Barack Obama - One of Clinton's great misfortunes this year is that she is vying for the nomination against both modern-day Jack and Bobby Kennedys. Obama is the new Jack Kennedy, voters tell us.

On the pro side, he is electric, generates a message of hope that is particularly appealing to younger voters (who will vote in very large numbers in 2008), and has an ability to raise an enormous amount of money from tens of thousands of donors to match Clinton. He beams a message of change, presents a new face to the world and has opposed the war in Iraq more strongly than Clinton.

Cons: You do have to wince when he cites his history as a community organizer in Chicago as an example for making tough decisions. (Full disclosure: I too was a community organizer and it was a wonderful experience, but I am not running for president).

More at: www.zogby.com

 

[poochee]

Redefining National Security
Homes and health are new concerns
By John Zogby

With the caucuses and primaries now just around the corner, concern over national security remains at the forefront of the minds of likely voters in America.

The war in Iraq and terrorism around the world are most often cited as the top concerns, but serious worries about the state of the U.S. health care system and concern about the economy are emerging as the "new" national security issues.

That is to say, Americans are redefining what they think about security, expanding it to include how secure they feel about their household budgets, and how secure they feel about their health care coverage. The 2008 presidential election will be the first since Americans have completely adjusted to the post-9/11 world, and campaigns must understand this sea change in the minds of voters if they are to survive.

Of course, this all goes out the window if there is a new, serious terrorist attack on U.S. soil. But that hasn't happened in more than six years. In the current environment, Democrats hold the advantage.

That's not how it was last time around. In 2004, Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry found himself with 48% support nationwide, not bad for a White House challenger newly minted as his party's nominee. The problem was, he was unable to budge that number all year, and ended up narrowly losing the election. My polling showed his strategy was flawed from the beginning.

Three years ago, our polling showed that he was favored by likely voters on all of the top issues but one -- national security and the war on terror. Granted that was the top issue in the minds of voters, and our polling showed voters trusted President Bush much more to handle terrorism, but Kerry focused almost exclusively on that issue alone, instead of on those issues where he had a natural advantage.

He failed to win the trust of voters on terrorism, and his failure to capture a majority coalition of voters who cared about those other issues was his biggest mistake.

Zogby Poll

 

[poochee]

After Super Tuesday
By John Zogby

Now that Super Tuesday voters have made their wishes known, this is where we stand. On the Republican side, it’s no surprise that Arizona Sen. John McCain is a lot closer today to securing the Republican nomination. He had significant victories in many Super Tuesday states.

Read at: www.zogby.com

 

[Littlefield]

Zogby ain't doing so hot he said Romney and Obama had big leads and both MAC and Hillary blew them away in California . He forgot about the absentee ballots ., whoops.

 

[bill.aam]

Americans feel better about future:

MILWAUKEE (Reuters) - Growing confidence in the future and slightly warmer views of President George W. Bush and Congress put Americans in a better mood this month, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

The Reuters/Zogby Index, which measures the mood of the country, rose sharply to 99.3 in February from last month's 94.2, putting it at the highest level since August.

Approval ratings for Bush climbed to 34 percent from 31 percent last month, and positive ratings for Congress inched up from 14 percent to a still-low 17 percent.

Reuters poll...

 

[poochee]

Zogby: Just 28% Believe Rebate Checks Will Boost U.S. Economy

Interactive survey finds majorities oppose U. S. Government help for struggling investment companies and those facing foreclosure

UTICA, New York - As many Americans await the arrival of rebate checks from the federal government aimed at boosting the U.S. economy, a new Zogby Interactive poll finds just 28% believe the government's economic stimulus rebate plan will help.

Two in three likely voters (67%) do not think the rebate checks will give the U.S. economy a boost, with 36% who strongly disagree the checks are likely to help boost the sagging economy. Democrats (83%) and independents (70%) are more likely than Republicans (49%) to be skeptical of how much the rebate checks will improve the economy. Those doubts are also strongest among younger likely voters - 72% of those ages 18 to 29 disagree the rebate checks will help, compared to 60% of those age 65 and older. Regardless of whether they expect to receive a rebate check, 41% of those who shop weekly at Wal-Mart are optimistic about the government's plan, compared to just 15% of those who never shop at the nation's largest retailer.

The interactive survey of 5,036 likely voters was conducted March 26-28, 2008 and carries a margin of error of +/- 1.4 percentage points.

Most Americans opposed to federal bailouts for investment banks and homeowners

Most Americans also have misgivings about the possibility of the federal government stepping in to help struggling investment companies and those facing foreclosure on their homes. Two in three Americans (68%) disagree with the idea of the federal government stepping in to help investment companies that are suffering because of their heavy investments in worthless mortgages - just 25% believe the government should take steps to help these companies.

The Zogby Report

 

[bassetman]

Released: January 15, 2007
Zogby Poll: Nation Now Needs a New Reagan or FDR

U.S. in national crisis, majority tell Pollster Zogby

Americans long for the leadership qualities of the most popular Democratic and Republican presidents of the modern era to solve what a wide majority considers a national crisis, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.

The survey of 843 likely voters nationwide was conducted Jan. 5-9, 2007, and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Offered thumbnail descriptions of the presidential qualities, including the names of five of the greatest American Presidents – George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan – respondents nationwide said Reagan’s qualities are most sought after, with FDR a very close second. Twenty–eight percent said they would prefer someone like Reagan, whose “far-sighted vision” and who “persevered despite harsh criticism from enemies and was firm in pursuing his agenda.” Nearly as many (26%) said they preferred the “pragmatism and hopefulness of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who inspired a nation in trouble and championed the needs of the downtrodden.”

Another 21% said they think this is a time for Democrat John F. Kennedy, while 16% reached back to Abraham Lincoln in search of a leader to solve today’s modern problems. Just 6% said they think the nation – now at war around the world for five years – would be best served by George Washington, the man who led the war for independence.

It comes as no surprise Republican respondents overwhelmingly believe America is most in need of the guidance Reagan would provide – 57% of Republicans say the nation needs a president like Reagan, while 18% said it is time for a president with Lincoln’s attributes. But only 9% of Democrats believe the nation is in need of a president like Reagan. They would instead turn to Democratic presidents of the past to help solve the nation’s problems – 35% want to have a president like FDR, while 32% believe a president like Kennedy would be best able to lead America today.

Both women and men most favor a president like Reagan to deal with today’s issues – men somewhat more (32%) compared to 25% of women. FDR comes in as the second choice for men (28%) while 19% would turn to a president with JFK’s qualities. Women gave equal support (23%) to Roosevelt and Kennedy as their second choice for a president with the qualities the nation most needs now.

Our nation’s first president ranked far behind others -- only 6% who said America needs a president who possesses “the firm resolve yet humble spirit” of George Washington. Libertarians were twice as likely to believe there is a need for a person in the White House like Washington – 12% said they feel this way as well as 11% of those who identify themselves as very conservative.

There is widespread agreement among Americans surveyed that the nation is in a state of crisis. Democrats were much more likely than Republicans to say the nation is currently facing a crisis – 86% of Democrats feel this way, and though less so, a majority of Republicans (56%) agreed. While 82% of progressives and 80% of moderates said a crisis now looms in America, 57% of conservatives said the nation faces a crisis.

More than half (59%) of respondents said they believe the nation is off on the wrong track – that figure jumps to 83% for liberal respondents. Conservatives were more likely to say the nation is headed in the right direction – 44% have a positive view of where the nation is headed, compared to just 30% of overall respondents.

War was Americans’ top issue heading into the 2008 presidential election for 37% of respondents – widely beating out other concerns such as the economy, healthcare, immigration issues and taxes. Asked what issue will be most important to the nation in the next presidential election, half (50%) cited war-related issues in Iraq, Afghanistan and with the troops – again trumping any other issue by a significant margin.

(1/15/2007)

So, apparently the majority of every group thinks we are in trouble or teetering on it?

 

[poochee]

So, apparently the majority of every group thinks we are in trouble or teetering on it?

Yep!